Efrat Fenigson – The Musical Chairs of the Monetary Order | BTC Prague 2025 Keynote

The global monetary order is shifting — and it’s anything but civil behind the scenes. On the BTC Prague stage, I mapped out how CBDCs, stablecoins, digital IDs, carbon markets, and Bitcoin itself are all pieces of a chaotic puzzle being assembled by nation states and financial institutions right now.

A Recurring Pattern in History

Let me start with some context. About 81 years ago, the Bretton Woods agreements made the US dollar the world’s reserve currency and established the blueprint for how global money would operate. But historically, every 80 to 110 years, we see a shift in world empires. At the end of every cycle, we experience crises — pandemics, wars, emergencies. We are in one of those turning points right now.

As Ray Dalio has pointed out, we’re seeing changes in domestic order, world order, and the monetary order all at once — very much like the 1930s. The question is: will the US and the dollar maintain their position in the next cycle? I believe that is very much the intention.

The Buffet of Monetary Instruments

We are currently at what I call the buffet stage of monetary instruments. Nation states and central banks are experimenting — tokenized assets, regulated stablecoins, CBDCs, KYC Bitcoin ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves. Think of them as chefs testing dishes until they find a favorite.

On one end of the spectrum sits the retail CBDC — the most dystopian tool of financial control imaginable. On the other end are softer, more digestible instruments. The good news is that public pushback on retail CBDCs is working in some countries. The bad news is that wholesale CBDC pilots are quietly multiplying — more than 40 are running around the world right now.

Meanwhile, 24 major financial institutions have launched something called GL1 — Global Layer 1 — a multi-year initiative to build a unified settlement ledger. I’m not making this up. And here’s the irony: Bitcoin has already been doing exactly this for 15 to 16 years. Reinventing the wheel is wasteful, and Bitcoin has the first-mover advantage.

Stablecoins and the Dollar’s Digital Strategy

Stablecoins are expanding rapidly — over 70 projects globally, more than $230 billion in market cap, and daily transaction volumes exceeding $60 billion. Tether alone is now the 18th largest holder of US treasuries. The GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins federally in the US, has passed the Senate and awaits final approval.

Trump’s executive order bans retail CBDCs while greenlighting stablecoins — and I think this is deliberate. Regulated stablecoins can serve as a softer CBDC alternative while extending US dollar dominance globally, potentially creating trillions in demand for US treasuries. That’s why I believe the US is not giving up its empire status anytime soon.

Bitcoin’s Game Theory Is Playing Out

The Bitcoin picture is increasingly hopeful. New Hampshire became the first US state to hold a strategic Bitcoin reserve — fitting, given that Bretton Woods was signed there. Now 37 US states have introduced similar legislation. Senator Cynthia Lummis still has her bill on the table to acquire 1 million Bitcoin over five years. Missouri is moving to abolish capital gains tax on Bitcoin. More than 70 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

Globally, Bhutan, Thailand, Pakistan, El Salvador, Russia, and South Korea are all making moves. Thailand is now accepting Bitcoin from tourists and exempting capital gains tax for five years. The game theory is starting to play out exactly as we expected.

The Climate Piece of the Puzzle

One more piece deserves attention: carbon markets. Climate is a central pillar of the UN’s Agenda 2