Luke Mikic – Bitcoin Is the Economic Singularity

I’m going to trigger some people with this. On the BTC Prague stage, I made the case that Bitcoin is not digital gold, not digital real estate — it’s the most important technological revolution in human history. Bigger than fire. Bigger than the printing press. Here’s why.

Every Model Is Wrong

Let me start with my three controversial opinions. First: your stock-to-flow model, your power law model — they’re all going in the bin. Every price prediction for Bitcoin is wrong. Not because Bitcoin won’t go higher, but because people are looking at Bitcoin on a 50-year time frame when they should be looking at it on a 100,000-year time frame.

Four Things That Make Us Human

I believe civilizational progress is built on four pillars: energy, money, information, and property rights. Every major leap forward in human history came when all four of these pillars saw a fundamental upgrade at roughly the same time. That’s exactly what happened just before the 1770s industrial revolution. Coal in the 1600s. Central banking and double-entry bookkeeping in the 1600s. The printing press in the 1450s. All of these unlocks converged — and the result was 250 years of exponential progress.

The Great Stagnation Is Telling Us Something

For the past 50 years, meaningful innovation has only happened in bits, not atoms. Our physical world hasn’t materially improved. The Henry Adams curve — which tracked energy consumption per capita on an exponential trajectory for 225 years — broke in the 1970s. The momentum from the industrial revolution has run out of steam. We need a new one.

Bitcoin Upgrades All Four Pillars Simultaneously

Here’s what makes Bitcoin different from every other technology. It doesn’t just improve one area — it upgrades all four at once. Bitcoin incentivizes the use of wasted energy globally, pushing us toward becoming a Type 1 civilization. It increases monetary velocity by uniting the world on one standard. It accelerates the flow of information and knowledge. And it gives property rights to everyone on the planet for the first time in history. Just like the printing press separated church from state, I believe Bitcoin will separate money from state for the first time in 7,000 years.

Extinction or Singularity

My second controversial opinion is that Bitcoin is not the fifth technological revolution in a neat 50-year Kondratiev wave cycle. My third is that we will see more change between 2000 and 2050 than in the previous 500,000 years combined. I think our civilization faces a binary outcome: extinction or singularity. There is no comfortable middle path. If we don’t cross the chasm and adopt sound, decentralized money before nation-states and nuclear tensions escalate further, the window closes.

Think Bigger

My base case for Bitcoin by 2030 is $10 million, $50 million, even $100 million per coin — and we’d still only be at 5% global adoption. The math is just the math. But what concerns me is that Bitcoin gets captured as a store of value by big money before ordinary people have a chance to stack it as a medium of exchange. That’s why I do what I do. I want the little guy to get there first — before BlackRock, the billionaires, the nation states, and the pension funds.

Prepare for volatility. Think on a 100,000-year time frame. And whatever model you’re using — throw it out. Bitcoin is the economic singularity.